Tinubu Has Incumbency Advantage, but 2027 Presidential Election Remains Unpredictable – Bukola Saraki
Tinubu Has Incumbency Advantage, but 2027 Presidential Election Remains Unpredictable – Bukola Saraki
In a candid interview with ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU, former Senate President and ex-Kwara State Governor, Dr Bukola Saraki shared his insights on the state of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Saraki emphasized that while President Bola Tinubu has the incumbency advantage, the 2027 election is far from predictable. He also highlighted the ongoing reconciliation efforts within the PDP to ensure the party presents a strong, united front.
PDP Reconciliation: A Key Priority
Saraki reaffirmed that unity within PDP is essential for success in 2027. He described the party as a strong platform across all 36 states, noting that in many places, PDP loyalty is almost like a religion.
“In a large party, there will be differences and interests. But at the end of the day, we must galvanize those interests and ensure the party remains on the ballot for 2027,” he said.
He stressed that reconciliation must be practical and inclusive, accommodating all members, ending litigation, and restoring confidence in the party.
Saraki on Party Factions and Leadership
Saraki highlighted that disputes within PDP should not jeopardize members’ chances to contest elections. He noted that most differences have been narrowed down, with only a few remaining dissenters.
He emphasized the importance of statesmanship, urging leaders to put ego aside for the greater interest of the people.
“Being a statesman means making sacrifices, not because you cannot fight, but because you are acting in the greater interest of the people,” Saraki said.
The Importance of Conventions and INEC Participation
Saraki discussed past PDP conventions, including Ibadan 2025 and Abuja 2026:
- At Ibadan, INEC did not participate, so delegates were advised not to attend. The convention was later nullified by the courts.
- Abuja’s convention is expected to have INEC participation, ensuring it is legitimate.
He stressed that credible conventions and primaries are vital for PDP’s viability and members’ confidence.
Assessing PDP’s Strength Across the States
Saraki dismissed claims that PDP is weak nationwide:
- House of Assembly, gubernatorial, House of Representatives, and Senate candidates remain strong.
- Only the presidential level may have been affected by litigation and internal crises.
- Resolving disputes quickly will restore confidence and encourage aspirants to contest under PDP.
He noted that in Kwara State, PDP remains united and highly respected, with strong grassroots support even 15 years after leaving office.
On Defections and Party Loyalty
Some governors and leaders have left PDP despite benefiting from the party. Saraki avoided direct criticism, emphasizing reconciliation over blame.
“Criticism is better addressed privately if the goal is reconciliation. Public attacks can worsen divisions.”
2027 Presidential Election: Incumbency Advantage vs. Uncertainty
Saraki acknowledged that President Tinubu has the advantage of incumbency, but he also cautioned that:
- Many Nigerians are dissatisfied with current living conditions and economic challenges.
- Elections are ultimately decided by voters, not politicians, so predicting the outcome is premature.
- Credible electoral guidelines and transparent processes are essential to reflect the true will of the people.
“Too many elections are decided in court rather than at the ballot box, and that is not healthy for democracy,” he said.
Policy and Economic Insights
As an opposition leader, Saraki highlighted areas where the government has succeeded, such as stabilizing foreign exchange to encourage investment. However, he noted the need for improvements in job creation, cost of living, and security.
He also emphasized that the opposition must be more effective in highlighting policy gaps to ensure accountability.
Key Takeaways
- PDP remains a strong party nationwide despite internal challenges.
- Reconciliation is crucial to restore confidence, end litigation, and prepare for 2027.
- Incumbency gives Tinubu an edge, but voter sentiment and performance on economic and social issues are unpredictable.
- Credible elections and INEC participation are essential for democracy and party viability.
- Grassroots support and strong leadership at state and local levels will determine overall outcomes.